In the discussions happening behind closed doors and on the main stages of COP28, the conversation is rich with talk about sustainable energy alternatives. Yet, the focus is not solely on renewable sources like wind, solar, geothermal, or nuclear power. A newer contender, blue ammonia, is receiving notable attention from COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber, who advocates for its adoption as a ‘low-carbon product.’ This enthusiasm is not surprising, as he leads one of the top producers of blue ammonia globally. In a recent communication to delegates, Al Jaber urged a significant increase in the use of blue ammonia as a ‘low carbon’ fuel. However, the reality is quite different; blue ammonia is misleadingly portrayed. It may emit up to three times more greenhouse gases than traditional fossil fuels. So, why this strong push from Al Jaber? Is it mere self-interest or something more concerning?

To understand the issue, we should clarify what ammonia is. Aside from its association with the odor of stale urine, it is an essential ingredient in fertilizers and can also be utilized as a fuel source. More recently, ammonia has been identified as a means to transport hydrogen efficiently. Hydrogen, particularly when used in fuel cells, offers a clean energy solution. However, its transport poses challenges due to its low density and tendency to leak. In contrast, ammonia—comprising one nitrogen atom and three hydrogen atoms—is a stable and dense liquid, making it easier to ship. The plan is to transport hydrogen in ammonia form, which simplifies logistics, and then separate it into nitrogen and hydrogen for use, releasing nitrogen harmlessly into the atmosphere.

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The production of ammonia is straightforward in terms of sourcing nitrogen, which is plentiful in the atmosphere. However, acquiring hydrogen is more complex. This is where the various types of hydrogen come into play. Currently, the most prevalent form is grey hydrogen, produced through the steam reforming of natural gas, resulting in carbon dioxide and raw hydrogen. This process has a significant carbon footprint, prompting the search for cleaner methods. Electrolysis, which uses electricity to break down water into oxygen and hydrogen, yields green hydrogen when powered by renewable energy, while nuclear energy yields pink hydrogen. Both green and pink hydrogen are low in carbon emissions and are seen as potential future fuels.

The drawback is that electrolysis has lower efficiency and higher costs compared to steam reforming. This is where blue hydrogen steps in. It mirrors grey hydrogen's production but captures and stores the carbon dioxide emitted during the process using carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology, resulting in a seemingly more environmentally friendly option. Blue hydrogen can then be converted to ammonia using the Haber process, resulting in the blue ammonia championed by Al Jaber.

Al Jaber is also the CEO of ADNOC, the national oil company of the UAE, which has established production lines for blue hydrogen and ammonia. They have already begun supplying blue hydrogen to countries like Japan, marketing it as an affordable low-carbon fuel to aid the transition to net-zero emissions. However, this claim is misleading.

The portrayal of blue ammonia overlooks several critical issues, including methane leakage, conversion inefficiencies, and the shortcomings of CCS technology. Methane, a primary component of natural gas, is linked to blue ammonia production. Although detection and extraction of methane are effective, leakage into the environment is a significant concern. Approximately 3.2% of extracted natural gas escapes, and since methane is a potent greenhouse gas—having 80 times the warming potential of carbon dioxide—this is problematic.

The inefficiency of the Haber process, which converts nitrogen and hydrogen into ammonia, is another concern. While this process is essential for ammonia production, it is energy-intensive and has low efficiency rates, typically between 33% and 43%. Moreover, the energy required for steam reforming and CCS results in blue hydrogen having around 77% efficiency. Consequently, to produce one watt of energy from blue ammonia, 3.94 times more natural gas must be extracted than if the gas were burned directly. This increased demand elevates methane leakage rates associated with blue ammonia production.

Furthermore, while the CCS systems used in blue hydrogen production can be more efficient than those used for direct air capture of carbon dioxide, they still have limitations. Studies show that they capture only up to 58% of the carbon dioxide emitted during steam reforming. When considering the need to process significantly more fossil fuels, the overall carbon dioxide emissions may actually increase.

In calculations, blue ammonia has been shown to emit 2.5 to 3 times more greenhouse gases than conventional fossil fuels, including coal and natural gas. Thus, blue ammonia is not just inaccurately labeled as low-carbon; it may actually represent one of the more polluting energy sources available.

So, why is Al Jaber and various oil entities advocating for this technology at COP28, arguably one of the most critical climate summits? While the motivations are complex, several factors may contribute.

Firstly, fossil fuel reserves are dwindling. At the current consumption rate, only about 50 years' worth of natural gas remains. However, a transition to blue ammonia could quadruple production and consumption rates, reducing the lifespan of reserves to just 12.5 years. This raises the possibility that oil companies anticipate a decline in natural gas extraction profitability post-2050, pushing them to leverage blue ammonia as a method to maximize profits before then.

Additionally, misrepresenting blue ammonia as a low-carbon solution allows it to be portrayed as a crucial technology for mitigating climate change. This manipulation undermines genuine climate efforts, earning it the label of a "Trojan Horse."

Moreover, the UAE's role in OPEC gives it substantial global influence, as OPEC nations account for a significant portion of oil imports worldwide. Al Jaber's previous governmental experience likely informs his understanding of the geopolitical ramifications of energy policies. By promoting blue ammonia, the UAE can maintain its influence while appearing to address climate issues.

However, there may be less conspiratorial reasons for this push. The UAE's economic prosperity relies heavily on oil, with a third of its GDP linked to oil reserves. A reduction in oil production could destabilize the economy unless an equivalent or more lucrative product, like blue ammonia, is offered. Al Jaber himself has a vested interest in preserving his company’s market position, which incentivizes him to advocate for these flawed climate solutions.

Regardless of the underlying motivations, the support for blue ammonia by oil-producing nations and lobbyists indicates a reluctance to envision a sustainable future. They seem willing to endorse misleading solutions that prioritize profit over environmental well-being.

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(Originally published on PlanetEarthAndBeyond.co)

Sources: Euro News, Aramco, The National News, Energy Tracker Asia, National Grid, Royal Society, IEA, Royal Society, Kaleej Times, Boycott COP28, Hydrogen Insight, EIA, Cambridge Econometrics, Wolfram Alpha, EDF, Science Direct, Royal Society Of Chemistry, TS2