The Inevitable End: A Comedic Perspective on Our Existential Risks
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As we navigate through life, it's hard to shake the feeling that our time on Earth is finite, and yes, spoilers alert: we’re all headed towards that ultimate end. At some point, humans will face extinction, much like the Dodo bird and countless other species before it. Historically, over 99% of all species have vanished from existence.
This looming reality explains why some of the world's wealthiest individuals seem to be in a rather absurd competition to explore outer space.
Contemplating the potential demise of both ourselves and our planet is a uniquely human trait — it’s our morbid curiosity at work.
In my childhood, I was convinced that recycling would save the Earth. As a teenager, I believed reducing carbon emissions would do the trick, but it seems we might soon cross a point of no return regarding that issue.
However, both of these strategies relied on the assumption that we wouldn't first turn our planet into a nuclear wasteland, leaving only cockroaches, tardigrades, and perhaps a few politicians to thrive in a post-apocalyptic world.
Now, as a somewhat pessimistic millennial, I often reflect on the various apocalyptic scenarios depicted in films and wonder which might lead to our downfall. Will it be AI robots like in "The Terminator" or perhaps an asteroid, reminiscent of "Deep Impact" and "Armageddon"?
Fortunately, we have brilliant scientists diligently studying global catastrophic risks and potential solutions to avert such disasters. Global catastrophic risk, or existential risk, is defined as:
"Any risk that has the potential to eliminate all of humanity or, at the very least, kill large swaths of the global population.” — Future Of Life
Is it just me, or does the author of that quote have a dark sense of humor about our doom?
If, like me, you're interested in transforming existential risk into an existential crisis, you're in for a treat. Let's explore the myriad ways our planet could meet its end.
Asteroid Catastrophe
An asteroid was responsible for the extinction of the dinosaurs. If I had to wager on surviving an event that wiped out the T. rex, I'd bet on the asteroid that was about half the size of Manhattan. Thankfully, such colossal asteroids aren't frequent visitors to our planet — most space debris that enters our atmosphere burns up. In fact, around 100 tons of space debris hits Earth daily.
So, how likely is it that an asteroid will collide with our world?
The good news is that we keep a close watch on asteroids. NASA and various global organizations, along with a network of backyard astronomers, have worked together to track and map 90% of asteroids larger than 1 km. That leaves just a 10% chance that an asteroid could hit us in the next century.
To lighten the mood, let’s not dwell too much on the near-miss of the 2019 OK asteroid — a football-field-sized rock that we only detected the day before it almost struck us. According to NASA, it passed within about 40,000 miles (65,000 kilometers) of Earth’s surface, which is a mere fifth of the distance to the Moon.
If you want to experience a cosmic scare, NASA has an amazing interactive tool where you can explore asteroids that might be on a collision course with our planet:
But there's no need to panic; we have DART, the Double Asteroid Redirection Test, designed to change an asteroid's trajectory with a maneuver akin to shooting one bullet with another. So rest easy, my friends — the space enthusiasts have got this covered. Plus, this is the least likely scenario for the end of the world.
Solar Supernova
Our sun, like my face, is bright but growing older. Just as I can get burned out, stars can too. Eventually, our sun will expand into a Red Giant, consuming our solar system. Before that happens, it will evaporate Earth’s water and inundate our planet with radiation, turning it into a molten mass.
Fortunately, our sun isn’t massive enough to become a supernova that could engulf us in a black hole.
Even better news: this transformation will take about 8 billion years, so by then, Elon Musk's distant descendants should have successfully relocated us.
Nuclear Annihilation
Now we're getting closer to a more immediate threat: humanity potentially self-destructing. Since the end of the Cold War, we find ourselves better armed than ever, with advanced technology and AI steering the ship. What could possibly go wrong?
Currently, nine nations admit to possessing nuclear weapons: Russia, the United States, China, France, the United Kingdom, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea. Thankfully, these countries are all exceptionally rational and stable, with no superiority complexes.
The scenario could unfold something like this:
However, not everyone is as optimistic about this nuclear fraternity, particularly the group of atomic scientists who maintain the Doomsday Clock.
These scientists measure our impending nuclear crisis in minutes and seconds. When they started in 1947, we were '7 minutes to midnight.' The time has fluctuated, but it has been particularly alarming recently. In 2019, we were just 2 minutes to midnight.
As of earlier this year, we stand at 90 seconds to midnight.
Their most recent report mentioned several ominous factors: climate change, biological threats, military AI usage, and casual nuclear rhetoric from Putin. They conveniently overlooked the ongoing tensions between nuclear neighbors India and Pakistan. But they’ll likely be fine — as long as there isn’t a fallout.
It seems I’m not alone in my concerns about nuclear catastrophe. Historian Alex Wellerstein created NukeMap, an interactive tool allowing users to simulate their own nuclear explosions, complete with fallout effects. So far, it has hosted 344 million virtual detonations.
In 2021, the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons was established, garnering 93 signatories. Unfortunately, not one of those countries is nuclear-armed; all nine nuclear nations declined to sign.
Supervolcano Scenarios
I have a fondness for volcanoes. I even tried volcano boarding down Cerro Negro, a 2,388-foot cinder cone in Nicaragua.
I had another volcanic adventure in Guatemala, where my friends and I watched Volcan de Fuego erupt from the rooftop of our hostel. It was a stunning display of nature’s fireworks (from the safe vantage point of our roof while enjoying drinks).
Volcanoes are awe-inspiring, but could they unleash enough ash to block out the sun?
Volcanoes erupt regularly; on average, 50-70 of them erupt each year, depending on seismic activity. However, for an eruption to cause global devastation, it would need to be a supervolcano. Thankfully, only about 20 of the roughly 1,000 volcanoes are classified as supervolcanoes, one being Yellowstone in the U.S.
Yellowstone erupts violently every 600,000 years. Since the dawn of humanity, only two significant supervolcano eruptions have occurred, the last being in New Zealand 26,000 years ago.
We have time on our side here, and it’s incredibly unlikely we’ll witness a volcanic apocalypse in our lifetimes. The Japanese lava dome has about a 1% chance of erupting in the next century, which I’ll gladly accept if it means we can "live, love, lava."
Climatic Catastrophe
Global warming — or planetary menopause, as I like to call it — is the most likely cause of humanity's demise. I hope that revelation wasn't too anticlimactic. As we remain preoccupied with our daily lives, oblivious to the looming disaster, we seem to be digging our own graves, armed with a shovel from Costco.
Our collective ignorance has failed to ignite action against climate change. Not even NASA's brightest minds can come up with a fix; there’s no algorithm that can be coded to solve this, nor will a nuclear winter halt global warming.
We’ve passed the tipping point. It’s too late to ask the icebergs to take it easy; we’re now officially in a dire situation. The weather forecast is grim — dark skies with a slight chance of survival. Climate change will continue to raise sea levels and devastate agriculture. Our only hope is to limit the number of lives lost.
According to the Climate Clock, which nerds seem to love, we have 5 years and 9 days to avert a global catastrophe. However, considering how slowly we’ve acted since this issue was first raised in 1988 and brought to the forefront by Al Gore in 2006, I’m not holding my breath.
There’s no betting odds for this; it’s happening. Unfortunately, there’s no happy ending to this tale — we still have people debating whether climate change is real. Wouldn’t it be great if we could just agree?
As a species, we’re complicated and failing at this climactic Kobayashi Maru. Get ready for the new world order of canoes.
I can almost hear you saying, “Gee, Robin, this is such an uplifting post,” accompanied by an eye roll.
Yes, it’s a bit grim. I didn’t even get into AI cyborgs taking over, as if we were in a Matrix prequel, or another pandemic, for which we’ve shown we’re vastly unprepared. Then there’s the potential rise of an end-of-times supervillain, currently in the early stages of their villain arc.
But these examples illustrate humanity's bizarre priorities. We have countless scientists focusing on asteroids and geologists keeping tabs on supervolcanoes, yet we can’t seem to tackle the apocalyptic issues already wreaking havoc on our planet. People are strange.
However, there is a silver lining to our impending doom — live in the moment.
If you're searching for motivation to start that new hobby, finally take that vacation you've been putting off, or take risks in life — this is your apocalyptic sign.
Do it before the end of the world arrives, whether it’s in 8 billion years, 5 years and 9 days, or, according to the Doomsday Clock, just 90 seconds.