In the first part of this discussion, I highlighted that the uneven distribution of extreme temperatures around the globe is more crucial than global averages for comprehending the repercussions of climate change on human societies in this century and beyond. This second part delves into how these disparities will shape our responses to climate change: the timing, locations, and consequences of such impacts.

The way temperatures are distributed—rather than the average temperature itself—will dictate how profoundly we descend into a hotter and more perilous world. The unequal distribution of extreme temperatures is vital because it reveals the asymmetries in how climate change effects will differ across various regions, countries, and even localities. When access to essential resources is uneven, humanity faces a choice: cooperate and share these resources fairly, or compete for them, creating a divide between winners and losers.

In dire situations, where survival is at stake, those who prevail will monopolize resources, leaving the disadvantaged with a stark choice: either remain and perish or relocate to areas where their needs can be fulfilled. This migration is depicted in the graphic at the beginning of this article. Individuals will seek to escape the most affected regions and move to less impacted areas, but many will lack the means to do so. As François Gemenne pointed out in a largely overlooked study from 2011:

“… not everyone moves when confronted with environmental changes. … Numerous studies show that migration flows tend to decrease when environmental crises peak. … People will move only if they have the resources that allow them to do so: this includes financial resources—moving is a costly process—but also access to social networks facilitating mobility. Furthermore, empirical evidence shows that the most vulnerable are often unable to move when faced with an environmental crisis.” (source, p. 188)

This unfortunate reality underscores the harsh outcomes of too many individuals vying for too few resources, compounded by a lack of social frameworks for equitable and sustainable resource distribution. Significant disparities in resource exploitation will likely inform the contours of proposed solutions. However, these solutions are unlikely to entail dismantling the global economic structures that created and continue to rely on these inequalities to serve the demands of the wealthiest and most influential.

Where Will Climate Change Strike First? It is telling that those experiencing the initial, severe impacts of climate change are often those who contributed least to its onset. As mentioned in the Washington Post article referenced in Part 1, extreme climate conditions—far exceeding global averages—are manifesting worldwide, with a strong likelihood of further occurrences. The IPCC warns in its inaugural report focusing on the effects of extreme climate events:

“As the climate moves away from its past and current states, we will experience extreme events that are unprecedented, either in magnitude, frequency, timing or location. The frequency of these unprecedented extreme events will rise with increasing global warming. Additionally, the combined occurrence of multiple unprecedented extremes may result in large and unprecedented impacts.” (source, ch. 11, p. 1610)

We can outline where the risks are most pronounced for various climate threats.

Heatwaves: Wet-bulb temperatures combine heat and humidity. Moist heat poses a greater risk to humans than dry heat, as high humidity impedes the body's cooling mechanism, potentially leading to overheating and death in extreme cases. Thus, regions with high humidity and heat are particularly vulnerable to severe heatwaves.

Recent research tracking extreme heat from 1979 to 2017 indicates that wet-bulb temperatures have already exceeded safe thresholds in several areas, albeit briefly. Regions at heightened risk as global average temperatures rise include South Asia (notably the Indus River Valley), coastal Middle East (around the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman), and coastal Southwest North America. Other highly susceptible areas include Eastern Coastal India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Northwestern India, and the coasts of the Red Sea, Gulf of California, and Southern Gulf of Mexico.

These regions are not only home to billions but are also vital agricultural and manufacturing hubs embedded in global supply chains. Due to inadequate power infrastructures and limited access to cooling, extreme heat events could severely disrupt labor productivity and, with continued temperature increases, render these areas uninhabitable for significant portions of the year.

Floods: Flooding from heavy rainfall and snowmelt is already wreaking havoc in cities worldwide, as seen in recent unprecedented floods in Germany, China, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Malaysia. Climate scientists emphasize that these floods are merely precursors; as global temperatures rise, increased moisture in the air will lead to more frequent and severe rainfall. The current floods serve as alarming indicators of the human and economic toll such events are poised to inflict.

Droughts: Prolonged periods with little or no precipitation, termed “precipitation deficits” by the IPCC, are becoming increasingly common and lethal. The IPCC report indicates that agricultural and ecological droughts are escalating “on all continents and several regions,” with notable occurrences in Western Africa, Central Africa, Southern Africa, Central and East Asia, Southern Australia, Mediterranean areas, Western and Central Europe, and Northeast South America.

Wildfires: With forests drying out due to droughts and reduced precipitation, wildfires are becoming more frequent and expansive. The interplay of drought and heatwaves diminishes moisture in soil and trees while heightening humidity and wind, directly contributing to wildfire proliferation. Countries most severely impacted by wildfires include Russia (both forest and tundra fires in Siberia), Canada, the United States, Brazil (especially the Amazon), and Australia. As climate change exacerbates forest conditions, scientists warn we have entered an era of catastrophic megafires, which behave unpredictably and can even generate fire-induced storms.

Wildfires pose dual threats to human populations. First, they release vast quantities of smoke and particulates, degrading air quality globally and increasing respiratory and cardiovascular issues, particularly among vulnerable groups. Some estimates suggest that air pollution may contribute to up to 10 million deaths annually.

Secondly, wildfires have long-term repercussions. When forests burn, they emit substantial CO2, reversing their role as carbon sinks and exacerbating atmospheric carbon levels. This additional source of CO2 can be underreported in national emissions data, leading to significant underestimations of future climate impacts.

Breadbasket Failures: Extreme weather events pose the greatest threat to humans by jeopardizing our food production capabilities, drawing attention to the world’s primary agricultural regions, the so-called breadbaskets.

Three key facts illuminate how extreme local weather can jeopardize global food security. Firstly, four crops—rice, wheat, corn, and soybeans—constitute nearly half of the average diet for the 8 billion inhabitants of Earth. Secondly, major grain production is concentrated in a handful of countries: China, the United States, India, Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine, and Southern Russia.

The map below illustrates these concentrations in greater detail:

Lastly, these regions face escalating environmental threats to their agricultural output:

• Eastern China: droughts, floods, heatwaves
• Northern India: droughts, heatwaves (Punjab), and flooding due to Himalayan glacial melt
• Southern Russia and Ukraine: conflict
• Western Europe: droughts, floods, heatwaves, cold snaps (disrupted polar vortexes)
• Brazil and Argentina: heatwaves, wildfires, floods
• US Midwest and Canadian Prairies: heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, cold snaps (disrupted polar vortexes)

Estimating the probabilities for a global event like simultaneous crop failures across multiple breadbaskets is complex, yet several studies have attempted this. The McKinsey report indicates that under business-as-usual conditions (as represented by IPCC model RPC8.5), the likelihood of a more-than-15%-drop in global grain yield occurring once in a decade was 15% for the decade surrounding 2020. If greenhouse gas emissions continue at their current pace, this likelihood could rise to 30% by 2030 and 60% by 2050. Other research corroborates these findings.

If we maintain our current trajectory, a simultaneous breadbasket failure by 2050 is increasingly probable.

Sea Level Rise: Although significant sea level rise may not be the first impact felt by human populations, it appears inevitable due to Arctic and Antarctic ice melt. Vulnerable nations include Bangladesh, China, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Many small island states, such as the Maldives, face existential threats as they risk being submerged.

In summary, certain countries repeatedly emerge as likely early victims of climate change, particularly in Asia, Africa, and Central and South America. These nations often experience extremes at both ends of the dry/wet and hot/cold scales: deadly heat, drought, and water shortages during warm months, and cold snaps, excessive rainfall, and flooding during cooler months. The world's two most populous nations—China and India—exhibit these vulnerabilities. As crucial centers for manufacturing and agriculture, climate disruptions in these countries will have significant implications for global trade, as is already evident. Similar threats loom over Brazil, home to the Amazon rainforest, the planet’s largest carbon sink, which is particularly susceptible to rising temperatures, wildfires, and flooding. Other potential hotspots include Mexico, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. All these countries play vital roles in global supply chains but lack the resources and infrastructure necessary to safeguard their populations against the extreme challenges posed by climate change.

What was originally the latter half of this article has been published separately, titled “Why Is the Global North Sleepwalking into Climate Catastrophe?” available here. Thank you for engaging with this content!