Climate volatility has intensified in recent years, bringing fires, floods, and hurricanes worldwide, alongside new forms of climate skepticism. One prominent figure in this discourse is Patrick Moore, who, despite his scientific background and significant presence on Twitter, asserts:

“Any effect of CO2 on temperature could easily be overridden by other factors. The long historical record does not support CO2 as some kind of control knob as NASA claims. They’re not in sync.”

To bolster his claim, Moore shares a striking visual representation of CO2 levels against global temperatures, albeit without any references. This chart appears to suggest a questionable relationship between CO2 and temperature, even though a review of the last 65 million years indicates that both CO2 levels and temperatures have decreased concurrently.

The challenge with social media is the difficulty in verifying the assertions made by influential contrarians who tout “logic” while obscuring their methods. As rational observers, we have a couple of reasonable approaches:

1. Trust, but verify
2. Don't trust, verify

Through diligent research, it appears that the time series does have a source, traced back to a 2001 study by Yale geophysicists. Nonetheless, it could be misleading, so let’s examine a more recent dataset. According to NOAA, over the past 800,000 years, there is a strong correlation between atmospheric CO2, global temperatures, and sea levels.

As CO2 levels increase, the atmosphere more effectively traps solar radiation. This leads to rising temperatures, resulting in the melting of ice caps and increased sea levels. Recent NOAA datasets indicate that since 1959, atmospheric CO2, global temperatures, and sea levels have shown a significant upward trajectory.

Rasmus Tonboe, a researcher at the Danish Meteorological Institute, has suggested that “The October Arctic sea ice extent is going to be the lowest on record and the sea ice growth rate is slower than normal.” A recent study published in Nature Climate Change forecasts that summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean could vanish entirely by 2035.

The impacts of climate change are already evident, with millions facing displacement due to rising sea levels. Record temperatures in regions such as Australia and the Western U.S. have exacerbated devastating wildfires. Yet, figures like Patrick Moore downplay the seriousness of CO2 emissions.

While CO2 levels are a critical factor, they are not the sole influence on Earth's temperature. Other greenhouse gases, including methane, also capture heat from the sun. In recent decades, methane levels have surged, largely due to industrial beef production.

Another significant factor affecting Earth’s temperature is the intensity of solar radiation itself. The unprecedented rise in CO2 emissions is overshadowing natural solar cycles that contribute to warming and cooling. According to NASA:

“The amount of solar energy received by the Earth has followed the Sun’s natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs with no net increase since the 1950s. Over the same period, global temperature has risen markedly. It is therefore extremely unlikely that the Sun has caused the observed global temperature warming trend over the past half-century.”

This divergence can almost certainly be attributed to the increase in global greenhouse gas emissions. Which nations are responsible for the majority of CO2 emissions?

Since 1945, global CO2 emissions have surged nearly sevenfold, with Asia—primarily China—now responsible for over 50% of total emissions.

Without a significant change in direction, it is improbable that the world will successfully reduce CO2 emissions or reverse these trends. Government interventions in energy markets often have unintended negative consequences for hardworking citizens. For instance, in France, carbon taxes sparked the Yellow Vest protests that disrupted the nation for months.

One of the most effective strategies a country can adopt is large-scale tree planting, a natural method of carbon capture. Recognizing the existential threat posed by pollution and flooding, China has made significant strides in planting billions of trees. NASA reports:

“The world is literally a greener place than it was twenty years ago, and data from NASA satellites has revealed a counterintuitive source for much of this new foliage. A new study shows that China and India — the world’s most populous countries — are leading the increase in greening on land. The effect comes mostly from ambitious tree-planting programs in China and intensive agriculture in both countries.”

Trees naturally and effectively capture CO2 and other harmful particulates from the atmosphere. They also help mitigate flooding and soil erosion, regulate temperatures, and promote biodiversity. Although billions of trees have been planted, this effort falls short of what is necessary.

World leaders must pursue an agreement to plant trillions of trees. This may be our best hope for stabilizing the climate.