The Post-Detection Protocol

At present, there are no official government guidelines outlining the steps to take upon detecting signs of an advanced alien civilization. Nevertheless, the International Academy of Astronautics (IAA) has developed a Post-Detection Protocol. Initially crafted in 1989 and updated most recently in 2010, this protocol provides a framework for how scientists should seek out signals from extraterrestrial life, verify potential findings, and communicate with the public.

Firstly, the protocol mandates that SETI activities be conducted transparently, ensuring that the public is informed of these efforts. Upon detecting a signal that might originate from an alien civilization, scientists are tasked with confirming its authenticity. This typically involves observations from multiple facilities and organizations to increase confidence that the signal isn’t merely a fluke.

The protocol also indicates that there is no obligation to disclose verification activities while they are ongoing and emphasizes the importance of avoiding premature announcements until verification is finalized. However, maintaining secrecy among scientists during this process poses its own challenges, as the scientific community often prioritizes transparency. Given today’s pervasive social media landscape, keeping a discovery under wraps would be especially difficult.

Once scientists are confident that a signal is indeed of extraterrestrial origin, they must publicly report their findings, share the information with the scientific community, and notify the Secretary-General of the United Nations.

Moreover, all data necessary for confirming the signal must be made accessible to the international scientific community, typically via publications and conferences.

The protocol stipulates that the signal should be continuously monitored, and all recorded data should be available for further analysis and interpretation.

Finally, the protocol prohibits any responses to the discovered signal until consent is obtained from an international organization, such as the United Nations. Many within the scientific community advocate caution regarding humanity's exposure to an alien civilization, as responding poses significant risks. The uncertainties surrounding the capabilities and intentions of such civilizations warrant careful consideration. For further exploration of the potential dangers associated with contacting extraterrestrial life, refer to this article.

Scientists from the SETI Institute have attempted to quantify the significance of a potential SETI signal through the Rio Scale. This ordinal scale, ranging from zero to ten, evaluates the potential impact of public announcements related to extraterrestrial intelligence. First proposed in Rio de Janeiro by Iván Almár and Jill Tarter in 2000, a Rio Scale calculator is available online for assessing various detection scenarios—try it out here!

What Types of Signals Might We Encounter?

Civilizations have numerous methods to communicate across the vastness of space. Ideas range from electromagnetic waves to particle beams and even gravitational waves. For an in-depth look at these proposed methods, refer to this article.

That said, electromagnetic signals are likely the most effective means of communication based on our current scientific understanding. They travel at the maximum speed possible—the speed of light—and are relatively easy to generate and detect. Consequently, most modern SETI efforts concentrate on locating electromagnetic signals, making it probable that any detected extraterrestrial signal will have this nature.

Could We Respond?

The immense scale of the universe, combined with the distance from the transmitting civilization, heavily influences our ability to reply. If the originating civilization is nearby, two-way communication may be feasible. Conversely, if they are situated far away, maintaining ongoing communication could prove challenging. In extreme cases, we may not even ascertain whether the transmitting civilization still exists by the time their signal reaches us.

Fortunately, recent NASA research has identified approximately 300 million potentially habitable planets within our galaxy. For further details on this estimate, check out this article. With so many habitable worlds, it is conceivable that broadcasting civilizations could be signaling from within our galactic vicinity.

In the closest scenario, aliens would be transmitting from Proxima Centauri, the nearest star to our Sun (just about 4.2 light-years away). If astronomers from Proxima Centauri used electromagnetic signals to communicate, their message would take 4.2 years to reach Earth.

If Earth then wished to reply via an electromagnetic signal, it would take an additional 4.2 years for the response to reach Proxima Centauri. Thus, the astronomers there would have to wait a minimum of 8.4 years for any acknowledgment of their message. Even in the most favorable circumstances, communication is not a swift affair.

However, considering the vastness of our universe, it is more likely that any detected alien signal would originate from hundreds, thousands, or even millions of light-years away. If we were to receive a signal from a star a million light-years distant, it implies that the transmission occurred a million years ago. By the time we detect it, the civilization that sent it may have long since ceased to exist.

How Will Humanity Respond?

Science fiction often depicts scenarios where the revelation of alien life sends the world into disarray. But will reality mirror this? Will the confirmation of another intelligent species incite chaos, looting, and panic? Might some individuals even resort to sending a hostile response signal? The IAA's protocol encourages the public to stay calm while experts determine the best course of action, though this guidance may not influence societal reactions.

Perhaps the depictions in science fiction are overly grim. It’s also possible that discovering other intelligent beings in the universe could unite humanity, allowing us to set aside our earthly divisions.

Yet, the truth is that no one can predict society's reaction until we actually announce the detection of extraterrestrial signals. Nevertheless, some psychologists have researched this topic.

Michael Varnum, a psychologist at Arizona State University and a member of its Interplanetary Initiative, is among those investigating societal reactions to extraterrestrial discoveries. In a 2017 study, Varnum and colleagues examined media coverage of past announcements concerning extraterrestrial findings to gauge how society might respond when a genuine signal is detected. They analyzed five significant events:

1. The discovery of pulsars in 1967, which some initially speculated might be linked to extraterrestrial technology before being identified as natural phenomena.
2. Jerry Ehman’s detection of the “Wow!” signal in 1977, which remains a leading candidate for an alien signal, though its source is still debated.
3. The 1996 announcement of fossilized microbes found in a Martian meteorite.
4. The unusual behavior of Tabby’s Star reported in 2015, which some suggested could be attributable to an alien megastructure.
5. The discovery of exoplanets in 2017 located within distant habitable zones.

The psychologists utilized a program to analyze 15 articles from prominent American publications, including the New York Times and Wall Street Journal, for positive or negative language. Varnum found that journalists employed positive descriptors significantly more often. If these news sources reflect the general sentiment in America, the findings suggest society would likely react favorably to the discovery of extraterrestrial intelligence.

My Thoughts

Despite its limitations, I believe the IAA's post-detection protocol offers valuable guidelines for addressing the potential discovery of extraterrestrial intelligence. When SETI scientists identify a potential signal, I support the idea of keeping the findings confidential until a thorough validation is completed.

This is not due to a belief that society will collapse upon hearing the news; rather, my primary concern is that premature transparency could lead to misinformation. Humanity also transmits electromagnetic signals, and SETI searches sometimes pick up human-made interference, misclassifying these as potential alien signals despite rigorous screening.

An illustrative example is BLC1, a signal detected during the Breakthrough Listen project in April and May of 2019. This comprehensive SETI initiative identified a peculiar signal from the Parkes Observatory in Australia, labeled BLC1 (Breakthrough Listen Candidate 1), which seemed to originate from Proxima Centauri.

However, before the team completed a detailed analysis, news of BLC1's detection leaked. Their final assessment indicated that BLC1 was merely human-made radio frequency interference, akin to numerous other Earth-originating signals they had detected.

If scientists communicate findings prematurely, the risk of spreading false signals increases, leading to public desensitization—akin to the boy who cried “wolf” too often.

Nonetheless, I advocate for complete transparency regarding discoveries once thorough validation is achieved. The revelation of another technological civilization would profoundly impact society, and the people deserve to be informed. Moreover, we should collectively have a say in how we choose to respond.

What are your thoughts on this topic? I invite you to share your opinions in the comments, and I will do my best to address all serious inquiries.

Thank you for reading! If you enjoy content like this, please consider becoming a Medium member using my referral link here to gain unlimited access to all Medium articles for just $5/month.

If you found this article engaging, you might also like:

1. The Fermi Paradox: Where Are All the Aliens? — An exploration of our solitude in the cosmos.
2. 4 Times in History When We Tried Sending Radio Messages to Aliens — A look back at our attempts to reach out.
3. 3 Times in History When Scientists Thought We Made Contact With Aliens — Stories of suspected communications with extraterrestrial beings.

References: 1. “Protocols for an ETI Signal Detection.” SETI Institute, https://www.seti.org/protocols-eti-signal-detection. 2. Declaration of Principles Concerning the Conduct of the Search for … http://resources.iaaseti.org/protocols_rev2010.pdf. 3. The Rio Scale — IAA. https://iaaspace.org/wp-content/uploads/iaa/Scientific%20Activity/setirio.pdf. 4. “Rio Scale Calculator.” Rio Scale Calculator, https://iaaseti.org/en/rio-scale-calculator/. 5. Overbye, Dennis. “Looking for Another Earth? Here Are 300 Million, Maybe.” The New York Times, 5 Nov. 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/05/science/astronomy-exoplanets-kepler.html. 6. Kwon, Jung Yul, et al. “How Will We React to the Discovery of Extraterrestrial Life?” 2017, https://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/rb5mj. 7. Guarino, Ben. “How Will Humanity React to Alien Life? Psychologists Have Some Predictions.” The Washington Post, 27 Oct. 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2017/12/04/how-will-humanity-react-to-alien-life-psychologists-have-some-predictions/.